Module 4 · Market Monitor · Public series, refreshed monthly
The SOO's first functional activity: "analysis of sell vs hold and the trading activity and factors affecting valuations and marketability of the overall government portfolios, whole loan, MBS and MSR markets." All of the below is built from free, public, citable series — Ginnie Mae's own Global Markets Analysis Report, FRED, MBA, FHA and SEC filings.
Sources: Ginnie Mae Global Markets Analysis Report (Mar/Apr 2026 editions); Optimal Blue 30-yr FHA lock rate via FRED (OBMMIFHA30YF); MBA National Delinquency Survey Q4 2025/Q1 2026 releases; New View Advisors HMBS commentary.
Rates & spreads
Ginnie Mae II single-family MBS yielded 4.87% at February 2026 month-end, +93 bps to the 10-year Treasury — versus +118 bps a year earlier. Tighter agency spreads raise the value of every securitizable and claim-backed cash flow in the book, and they compress the discount the market applies to seasoned government collateral. Meanwhile the primary-market FHA rate sits at 6.31% (June 10, 2026) — almost exactly the book's 6.28% weighted-average note rate, meaning the portfolio accrues at market, not above or below it.
For HECM specifically: HMBS new issuance was $500M in May 2026 — the lowest May since 2009 — and private-label takeouts now fund most 98% buyouts industry-wide. A thin primary market cuts both ways: less competing supply for a Ginnie Mae sale, but a narrower natural-buyer base. Timing analysis belongs in every disposition memo.
Key levels, latest public readings.
| GNMA II SF yield (Feb 2026) | 4.87% |
| Spread to 10-yr UST | +93 bps (was +118) |
| 30-yr FHA rate (Jun 10, 2026) | 6.312% |
| Issuer 9281 WA note rate | 6.28% |
| HMBS issuance, May 2026 | $500M low since ’09 |
| HMBS issuance, FY2025 | $6.4B vs $5.9B FY24 |
The MSR market
Share of outstanding Ginnie Mae servicing, February 2026 (GMAR Table 20). Top five hold 58%.
The SOO folds MSR-market analysis into the advisory mandate for good reason: every disposition path — sale, assignment, continued MSS servicing — prices against what servicing is worth and who can board it. The public record covers this well: Ginnie Mae's own GMAR publishes holder-level shares with CPR and CDR monthly, and the three public servicers with material government books (PennyMac, Rithm, Onity — the last being the reverse-servicing anchor) disclose MSR fair-value assumptions, discount rates and sensitivities every quarter in SEC filings.
Post-Mr. Cooper absorption, Rocket holds ~10.4% of Ginnie servicing — top-5 concentration of 58% means subservicing capacity for any large transfer is a named-counterparty question, not an abstraction. Onity's filings are the closest public read on reverse-servicing economics specifically.
Credit backdrop
Issuer extinguishments happen when servicing stress meets balance-sheet stress. With FHA delinquency at multi-year highs and nonbank issuers carrying the buyout-funding burden HMBS 2.0 was meant to relieve, the probability-weighted future includes more seized portfolios, not fewer. The advisory framework Ginnie Mae buys under this SOO should be built to onboard the next Issuer 9281 in weeks — which is an architecture requirement, not a staffing one. See the workflow solution →